Industrial and Corporate Change, Volume 12, Number 4, pp. 653-672
© 2003 Oxford University Press
Which dreams come true? Endogeneity, industry structure and forecasting accuracy
M. L. Barnett, University of South Florida, College of Business Administration, Department of Management, Tampa, FL 33620, USA. Email: mbarnett{at}coba.usf.edu.
W. H. Starbuck, New York University, Stern School of Business, Department of Management, 40 W. 4th Street, Tisch 7–22, New York, NY 10012, USA. Email: wstarbuc{at}stern.nyu.edu.
P. N. Pant, Clean Slate Consulting Pte. Ltd, 10 Holland Hill, #05–06, Singapore 278733. Email: narayan{at}cleanslate-consulting.com.
Abstract
Forecasts are plentiful. Accurate long-range forecasts are rare. But some forecasts are more accurate than others are and a few are very accurate. In this paper, we first explore the case of Moore's Law, a forecast that has proven quite accurate for almost 40 years. We illustrate how expectations that Moore's Law will continue to be accurate actually make it accurate. Based on the insights of this case, we hypothesize that two factors facilitate such self-fulfilling forecasts and so make accuracy more possible. We test these hypotheses on a set of 3142 forecasts about US manufacturing industries during the 1970s. We find that high industry concentration and high control over the predicted variable tend to increase the accuracy of forecasts.
CiteULike 
Connotea 
Del.icio.us What's this?
This article has been cited by other articles:
|
|
 |
|
  S. G. Winter Scaling heuristics shape technology! Should economic theory take notice? Ind. Corp. Change, June 1, 2008; 17(3): 513 - 531. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
 |
|
 P. H. Andersen and I. Drejer Systemic innovation in a distributed network: the case of Danish wind turbines, 1972--2007 Strategic Organization, February 1, 2008; 6(1): 13 - 46. [Abstract] [PDF]
|
|