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© 1998 Oxford University Press

research-article

Causality and the First Industrial Revolution

DAVID GREASLEYa and LES OXLEYb

aDepartment of Economic History, University of Edinburgh Scotland
bDepartment of Economics, University of Waikato New Zealand

Abstract

The existence, timing and possible causes of the British industrial revolution are considered by investigating the time series properties of industrial production and various explanatory variables. Utilizing co-integration-based causality tests, this paper argues that domestic forces, notably population, real wages and technological progress, shaped the industrial revolution, whereas overseas trade expansion was a consequence of industrial growth. The first industrial revolution may shed more general light on the forces promoting industrialization and growth. To the extent that the first industrial revolution offers a template, exports do not appear to provide a simple pathway to industrialization.


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